Market Recap
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Market Recap
Pending Home Sales Climb 10.9%:
Pending Home Sales climbed 10.9% from this time last year according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Pending Home Sales are homes that have active sales contracts but have not yet closed.
On a month-over-month basis, sales pulled back -0.4 percent. This is actually positive news as the market was expected a drop of over 1.00% due to higher mortgage rates during this term. The fact that the housing market is able to absorb the slight uptick in mortgage rates is good news.
Based on year-to-date sales activity, and stable contract signings expected for the balance of the year, NAR projects existing-home sales to rise more than 8 percent in 2013. Inventory shortages will lead the median price to rise by nearly 11 percent this year.
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Mortgage backed securities (MBS) lost -49 basis points from last Friday’s close which caused 30 year fixed rates to move higher. This ended the bond rally that had lasted for the two weeks prior to last week.
As we have discussed, MBS sell off when there is positive economic news. We certainly could have sold off even more given last week’s data with Durable Goods Orders much stronger than expected (4.2 vs 0.5) and the Consumer Sentiment Index rising from 84.1 to 85.1. Existing Home Sales missed the market expectations but was still robust. New Home Sales enjoyed some nice gains in terms of unit sales and price increases.
Demand for our 7 year Treasury auction saw some decent demand but our 5 year and 2 year auctions saw decreased demand.
MBS would have lost more ground (even higher rates for you) if it weren’t for a WSJ article that speculated that the Fed would change their language at this week’s FOMC meeting to calm the markets that they would not be increasing their rates for a long time. We agree. They will certainly leave their Fed Funds rate alone but they will eventually have to start to pull back on bond purchases and those bond purchases are what impacts your mortgage rates…not their Fed Fund rate.
Market Recap
Pending Home Sales Hit Six Year High:
The number of people who signed contracts to buy U.S. homes jumped in May to the highest level in more than six years, suggesting people are seeking to buy before mortgage rates rise further.Existing home sales improved in May but the supply of homes for sale remains tight – which isn’t good news for buyers, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday. The National Association of Realtors says that its seasonally adjusted index for pending home sales rose 6.7% to 112.3 last month. That’s the highest level since December 2006. Signed contracts have risen 12.1% in the past 12 months. The increase could reflect an effort by potential buyers to complete deals before mortgage rates rose further. Mortgage rates rose in May and then jumped after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke suggested last week the Fed could slow its bond purchases later this year. The increase points to healthy gains in home sales in the coming months. There is generally a one- to two-month lag between a signed contract and a completed sale. The Realtors’ group forecasts that sales will likely total nearly 5.1 million in 2013, which would be the highest in seven years. Other private economists have similar projections.
What Happened to Rates Last Week?
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We started the week once again going the wrong direction with MBS selling off and hitting a new low for 2013 which in turn, gave us the highest mortgage rates for the year. The sell off occurred in response to better than expected Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales and Consumer Confidence.
But the bond market reversed course on Tuesday after getting a much bigger downward revision to the 1st quarter GDP data. This meant that our economy grew less than originally thought and that is always a positive for bonds. MBS carried on their rally throughout the week on some commentary by various FOMC and Fed officials. They didn’t make any new announcements or policy changes. Instead their job was to calm the markets and to convey that a pull-back in monthly bond purchases is data dependent and will not necessarily occur as soon as the markets had been pricing in. Remember, the primary reason why mortgage rates have increased since May 1st is that MBS have been selling off due to concern that the single largest purchaser of MBS (the Fed) would begin to purchase less each month.
We had very weak demand for the 2 year and 5 year U.S. Treasury auctions but saw some good demand for our 7 year auction. We rounded out the week with stronger than expected Pending Home Sales and Consumer Sentiment.
Market Recap
May 20, 2013
Builiding Permits Hit 5 Year High:
The Commerce Department said Thursday that applications for building permits rose 14.3 percent to a rate of 1.02 million, the most since June 2008.
Builders are benefiting from a sustained rebound in housing that began a year ago. Steady job growth, rock-bottom mortgage rates and rising home values have boosted demand.
Housing starts came in at a seasonally adjusted rate of 853,000 which was a decline from last month. However, the majority of that decline was in apartment and multi-family and not in single family residences.
Confidence among builders is rising. The National Association of Home Builders says its builder confidence index rebounded in May to a reading of 44, up from 41 in April. The outlook for sales reached its highest point in more than six years.
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What Happened to Rates Last Week?
Mortgage backed securities (MBS) lost -65 basis points from last Friday to the prior Friday which caused 30 year fixed mortgage rates to move upward for the third straight week. We had our highest mortgage rates on Friday and our lowest rates on Thursday.
We had a very volatile week with large swings in MBS pricing. We traded in a very large range with a -86 BPS range between our highs and lows. Bonds (which include MBS) sold off on much better than expected Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment. But bonds rallied on very tame inflationary data as measured by CPI and PPI, and higher than expected Initial Jobless Claims. In the end, the economic data was responsible for some daily spikes in pricing but the real momentum in the market place was something else.
And that momentum was not good for rates. Bonds were hammered as traders started to join in on the belief that the Federal Reserve would begin to scale back on the amount of monthly MBS purchases sooner rather than later. There is no exact time frame and no “official” announcement has been made on the timing, but market participates are betting that it is sometime around September. Since the Fed is the single largest purchaser of MBS, having even a small decrease in their monthly bond purchases would pressure mortgage rates.
