Market Recap

November 18, 2013

Expert: Multi-Year Growth Ahead for Housing

Margaret Kelly, CEO of Denver-based RE/MAX, is bullish on housing.

“Overall, we are in the early stages of a multi-year sustainable housing recovery which is based on an improving economy, increase in job growth, decrease in the unemployment rate, pent up demand for housing from all four generations, and an increase in household formation and immigration,” Kelly told Wall Street analysts on a conference call last week, the first since the company, founded in Denver, went public in October.

“So with home sales rising, affordability in check, supply starting to normalize and mortgage rates still well below the 40-year average, we believe we will continue to see positive momentum in the real estate market,” she said.

Kelly noted that the number of Realtors nationally peaked at about 1.4 million and now stands at about a million.

In the “heat of the market,” (prior to the Great Recession) “quite honestly, anybody thought they could sell a home and make a commission,” she said. “And I think people who jumped into the real estate business really didn’t understand it.”
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 What Happened to Rates Last Week?

Mortgage backed securities (MBS) gained +70 basis points from last Friday’s close which caused 30 year fixed rates to move lower for the first time in three weeks. We saw our best rates on Thursday and our worst rates on Tuesday.

We had a holiday-shortened week with very few economic releases.  And the releases that we did have: Initial Jobless Claims, Productivity, Import Prices, Production, and Wholesale Inventories were all relatively close to market expectations and therefore did not have a major impact on mortgage backed security pricing.

We had a large supply of U.S. Treasury auctions hit the market.  The three year and 10 year notes saw some very strong demand and the thirty year bond saw a slight pull-back in demand.  The bond market, which controls interest rates,  did not have a major reaction to these auctions.

The big market mover last week wasn’t any data at all.  It was speculation….not facts but speculation.  And that speculation was about when the Federal Reserve would begin to decrease the amount of their monthly purchases of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage backed securities.  The current level of these monthly purchases is $85 billion.  At some point in time in the future, the Federal Reserve will change that monthly purchase amount to a lower figure and eventually end it all together.

Janet Yellen’s prepared statement and responses to the questions posed by the Senate Banking Committee last week was single biggest factor in helping mortgage rates to improve last week.   MBS responded positively to her dovish comments that she supports keeping Quantitative Easing (QE)  in place much longer until the economy is in better shape and stated that even after the Fed starts to slow their bond purchases that she anticipates the Fed standing pat on their Fed Fund Rate (0.00 to 0.25%) for a long time after QE is over.  This had bond traders rethink their current position on when they anticipated a “taper” to occur.  As they (the bond traders) think that the Fed will wait longer until decreasing their monthly bond purchases, your rates improve.